Obama's Popularity

Disclaimer: Some content in this post may be based on outdated or inaccurate polling.

There has been and continues to be a lot of talk about President Obama's popularity, and the constant drumbeat on news shows seems to be that he is in trouble. But is he really? While it's true that a lot of national polls place his popularity around 50%, this is a misleading way to present his true popularity. Even more misleading is the practice of some outlets that use an index of those who report strong feelings to represent his popularity as a negative number.

Outside of the South, Obama is actually quite popular. Among Democrats he remains overwhelmingly popular (~90%), and in general his approval rating outside of the South is stable around 55-60% of respondents. He has strong positive ratings with women, minorities, and younger voters. It is essentially the white, male, elderly southern vote that goes against Obama - and this is really not very surprising given the history of that demographic.

The demographic strength of the GOP has been their appeal to the most reliable of voters - those who are well off, well educated, well aged and, frankly, pasty white. But with the changing demographics of the coming century, is there room for a party that refuses to admit that real americans can be female, young, diverse and appreciative of diversity?

The Republican Party right now looks to me like a very dangerous animal. We have here an elephant with just enough life left in it to make a huge mess, and one that apparently has little or no interest in productively engaging in the legislative process. But the dynamics of elections being what they are, the GOP will be well financed and well positioned (with a hand from the media) to make life even more difficult for the People.

I'm no fan of one party political systems, but given the current state of our government, paralyzed by a GOP bent on total obstruction, I do believe there should be room for a Democratic majority to keep our nation functioning. What we really need is for voters to remember why they voted in 2008, and to take responsibility for moving forward with leadership that represents progressive values by voting D.

Re: Strangers to Dissent, Liberals Try to Stifle It

"You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror." - George W Bush

The author's agenda is showing. Liberals are not strangers to dissent - we invented and perfected it. That's the problem. There is a time and a place for dissent, and there is a right and a wrong way to dissent.

The current dissent represents spectacularly the 'wrong way', and Obama is just speaking truth to stupid.

Original article by By Michael Barone

Health Care Limbo

So this summer the dance craze is the "Health Care Limbo" - let's see how low we can set the bar for health reform. Obama has been on the record as supportive of a public option for all, rather than the current "senior-centric" system. Given the upcoming bump in boomers drawing on public programs, this is the right time to make big changes. But as the summer has dragged on there has been a lot of debate about the various possible means to accomplish the basic goals of health reform.

For the record:

The Administration believes that comprehensive health reform should:

Reduce long-term growth of health care costs for businesses and government
Protect families from bankruptcy or debt because of health care costs
Guarantee choice of doctors and health plans
Invest in prevention and wellness
Improve patient safety and quality of care
Assure affordable, quality health coverage for all Americans
Maintain coverage when you change or lose your job
End barriers to coverage for people with pre-existing medical conditions

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I happen to agree with Obama on these points, and I can see how there are many potential paths to achieving these goals.

What is perplexing is that the GOP has any traction fighting against these basic principles. The issue has been approached blindly and the media has been a big part of exacerbating the problem. Most businesses would gladly give up the expense and chore of dealing with health care, and the simplest and most effective way to do this would be a single payer system. The evidence in the world at large is rather overwhelming.

Single payer has achieved the goals outlined by the President. Supplemented by additional or optional private coverage, it is the best of both worlds for all of us.

Absent a "public option" it becomes much more difficult to achieve these goals. Private companies need an incentive to improve their products, and the public plan would provide a backstop for the millions of unemployed and working people who are without coverage. Private insurance companies have perverse incentives that lead to the denial of needed care, bankruptcy for the sick, and insecurity for all.

Until the final bill comes to a vote, I will refrain from a specific critique, but it seems to me that the government must not abandon a hand in achieving the goals set out above. The private market has proven to be more expensive, and less healthy.

Torture Photos: Obama's Pragmatism

The impending release of photos of US detainee torture, after the ACLU's successful lawsuit under the FOIA, have led Obama to indicate that the government will launch further appeals. This seemed to be a reversal of his expected response, and was very frustrating for those on the left who were pushing for transparency.

I have a slightly different perspective. I think Obama has made a very wise and calculated move in appealing the ruling. He has defused a great deal of criticism from those on the right by agreeing to proceed with an appeal, while at the same time the outcome will most likely remain unchanged in the end. Obama gets to have it both ways - he can act like the GOP wants him to now, and defuse their criticism, and after the appeals, the photos can be released anyway, mollifying the ACLU crowd.

This is a win-win for Obama, and a great example of how a brilliant politician can turn the tables when you least expect it. Pragmatism at its best.

Feeling the Stimulus

Politico has put together a panel to look at the possible impacts of the stimulus bill just passed. Everybody agrees that throwing money at the credit markets problem is a good idea, but they can't agree on who should get the most tossed their way. The spending will certainly provide some stimulus, but it is yet to be seen if it is enough to get the machine rolling again. We really needed this bill in August 2008 if we wanted any chance of avoiding the worst part of this recession.

I do wonder how one might notice the effects locally of this federal largesse. Perhaps there will be fewer potholes, and long-needed bridges will get built? One can dream, right? Hopefully the largest impact will be on confidence and job growth, where the economy has been treading water for almost a decade now.

For what it's worth, I hope the bill is a smashing success, because I really want to see what Obama can get done for healthcare and sustainable energy. If he can get us on course for a rapid move to an electric/solar economy, and make health coverage universal, we will all be better off. Here's to change.